giovedì 12 febbraio 2015

The new world order and small wars ahead. The Pandora's box.


Those familiar with my pages are accustomed to the concept of First Permanent War and a-polar world system. However, to this vision of modernity must be added another variant that finds its foundation, in particular, and once again, in US foreign policy; since the nineties with the support the Ukrainian Orange Movement and furthermore sustain to the demands for independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo, have highlighted the US intention to weaken both the European Union and Russia exploiting the claims of Ukrainian, Georgian and Kosovo. Kosovo, in particular, is the keystone that holds the entire US foreign policy after the season supported of land invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
The strong acceleration to the new strategic course was the approach - in economic terms - of Germany to Russia and China to the latter; so push the accelerator bordering Russia on defensive positions forcing her into a state of psychological encirclement clearly falls into this strategy.
I said of Kosovo as a turning point in international relations obviously referring to its proclaimed independence from Serbia in 2008, strongly supported by the United States and recognized by a number, not all, European countries. The question of legitimacy of this turn-independence Kosovo has been brought to the attention of the International Court of Justice which stated that the self-proclaimed state of Kosovo did not violate any international standard. This decision - downward - in the absence of a multilateral international treaty on the subject, opened the way to the movements independent thus creating a precedent to which appeal. So much so that will follow the Russian annexation of Abkhazia and Ossetia and the renewed willingness to form a sovereign state in the Palestinian territories.
Essentially the desire for autonomy that are not lacking in the world have become a tool of foreign policy to weaken or otherwise strengthen strategic positions in the international arena.
The Crimea issue, of course, cannot be alien to this mechanism, and in fact it is certainly seen that President Putin has claimed the right of these peoples to self-determination.
But even further, and this is another strong theme in recent months, with what interpretative fairness and conduct will be denied to people who support the Islamic State, or even to those who see in Boko Haram the lesser evil compared to a central corrupted administration to create their own State, read Caliphate?
The new era does not promise much good, but now the Pandora’s box was foolishly or perhaps willingly uncovered.