lunedì 29 settembre 2014

Insurgents, criminals and Permanent World War I

The future is this: a permanent war characterized by a variable geometry and fought by actors, mostly defined as insurgents who are opposed not by armies in the classic sense but by their evolved form. Besides, even the very concept of war as a form of conquest or defense, has changed and adapted to the contemporary world.
The regular armies can now rely on technological assets that permit to carry out acts of war at distance without direct involvement: the drones and the contractors, sophisticated term which replaces the less polite mercenaries.
Armies and mercenaries, however, does not represent a key element of the First Permanent World War being mere instruments operating in contrast to the onset groups that are the real stars of this evolving geopolitics framework.
The today’s insurgent are the subversive of yesterday; it is always matters to overturn an established power in order to replace it with something new and different.
In essence, those who, generally and generically, are defined terrorists, now as then, are insurgents, revolutionaries, who may have started their own war through acts of terrorism but that, over time, seek to structure and establish giving rise to militant organizations most articulate.
This distinction is crucial in dealing with the present global geopolitical situation as it enables us to understand the operational dimension of the main actor in the First Permanent World War: the insurgency.
Terrorists and insurgents; let me point out the main difference before proceeding further.
A terrorist group is an entity which has in itself the precursors to develop into a subversive militia once  circumstances permit, while a subversive group, revolutionary or insurgent, has already achieved this higher stage characterized by more complex  military capabilities, economic and policy power.
Such a movement needs to be structured to operate in a given area, and most importantly with the requirement to escape the meshes of the power that it opposes. For this reason it is inevitable build a logistical capacity adequate to manage militants, equipment, ammunition and supplies in general; all this takes place on a specific   territory and involves huge costs. Here, these two aspects are already indicators of the importance and inevitable need for any form of insurgency to come into contact with organized crime anywhere in the world due to the fact that it always controls the channels of illegal trade -the smuggling routes- thanks to which you can find and get any goods, move everything you need and even do business with it directly in order to finance the huge costs the insurgency.
And it is, as I will analyze in detail in the future, in this general framework that realizes the synergy of interests between illegal insurgents, criminals, profiteers and opportunists of various kinds of profession.
In substance and in summary, the USA, is no longer the sole arbiter of world equilibrium because it has to deal with other powers of different levels and weight, such as China, Russia, India, Japan, Pakistan and more closely with the countries of Latin America.
Today the actors are many and the only way that the United States, but also other countries, including emerging, have for survive is to ensure that none of the big players at the international table prevail. To achieve this result as were used to the Roman divide et impera,  divide and rule. 

It is starting from this need that logically makes sense the concept of the First Permanent World War: great powers have only one way to fight others: destabilize the geopolitical world sensitive theaters engaging the rival powers in terms of cost economic and political equilibrium.

So in this new world the insurgents and crime will work closely together and are intended to have a bright future.