lunedì 7 febbraio 2011

A YEAR OF WAR IN MEXICO

A YEAR OF WAR IN MEXICO
The year 2010 was marked for Mexico by ferocity that has reached the armed confrontation between the various criminal organizations and the latter against the federal state. Mexican criminal organizations are involved mainly in drug trafficking, cocaine from Andean countries, hashish and ephedrine products on site and intended primarily to North American and European markets, in the trafficking of human beings, using the flow from countries South American and kidnappings for ransom. The level of the clash of nature absolutely seen the means and military forces employed by every actor involved is so unusual that recorded the excess of the 11,000 victims, resulting in an increase of 70% compared to 2010. This clash has also now gone beyond the geographical boundary of the only states in the north to extend the involvement of the entire national territory. The resurgence of criminality is determined by the search for space and markets but also on the nature of the entire landscape delinquent Mexican presence is extremely fluid because of lack of criminal strategies in the medium and long term, but based on impromptu alliance is to achieve objective of quotas. It is, in fact, a war of all against all, the ally of today will most likely be tomorrow's enemy. The contrast to this phenomenon by the institutions entrusted with the policies of President Felipe Calderon who is extrinsic, essentially, to involve the army, as well as the federal police, the fight against organized crime. The police activity in recent months were aimed directly affect only the most experienced leaders of the cartels. This approach has its basis in the American doctrine crystallized in the Kingpin Act and has already been tried in past years in Colombia. Not being able to eradicate crime by measures of social and economic policies, is affecting, with military approach, and clearly identified some of the top organizations in the hope that the leadership failed to prove the latter has weakened to the point where they no longer pose a threat. An element which is not necessarily impossible to ignore is the geographical context in which the continental dynamics act to Mexico, Latin America experienced a renewed season of fierce fighting involving government authorities and the powerful criminals are often allied with the guerrillas (when it does not become an entity in itself criminal as it is happening to the Colombian FARC). The present one is certainly a very delicate phase of geo-political redefinition and consolidation of the various regional alliances, one of the factors, if not central, at least to secure the balance weight for the entire area is, of course, drug trafficking .

The World Drug Report 2010 UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) estimates that the total amount of cocaine on the international market is around 500 tons, corresponding to a nominal value of approximately 88 billion dollars. Although there is a decrease in production over the last decade by about 28% compared to 2000, South America remains the main hub in the global cocaine trade since the Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, the world's largest producers and Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela, countries of first storage and transit to North America and Europe. The strategy to combat married by President Calderon has produced, no doubt, some good results especially in the media according to justice, with spectacular action of the army's special forces some of the most wanted criminals. However, this strategy also has side effects no means negligible, since the territorial space of the cartels weakened suddenly becomes a battleground between the triggering other criminal organizations, and in doing so, fierce battles, with hundreds of deaths, to ensure control. Today President Calderon is at a crossroads, at about one year from the next presidential election, is forced to obtain positive results in combating international organized crime based on this since the previous election campaign and most of the current mandate. Given the practical likelihood that this result cannot reach with police activities, including but not limited to the lack of federal funds, it is likely that attempts to achieve a balance between the various criminal factions in the game in order to significantly reduce the armed conflicts thereby generating a greater sense of security among citizens due to the activity of government. The latter option would, strictly speaking, the emergence of a dominant player on the rest of the criminal landscape. The analysis of policing and the various alliances between signs suggest that this subject can be found in Sinaloa Cartel governed by the world's No. 2 sought after Osama Bin Laden, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman. The strategic choice of President Calderon will have implications in the facts of the news in the future months we will present, and only then will it be possible to check and judge the decisions of the institutions working to combat one of the bloodiest events of organized crime worldwide.