sabato 12 febbraio 2011

The Pharaon and the military in Egypt today.

After two weeks of popular protests, Hosni Mubarak has resigned and handed over responsibility for the governance of the country to a military council. This is an internal succession among the military establishment in Egypt. All Egyptian leader since the independence in the first half of the twentieth century were at the top of the military establishment.
Currently, the only thing that has changed is the personality at the top of the organizational pyramid.
The protesters are decidedly inferior to the military and internal security services, which has about 1 million members. Comparing this with the Iranian revolution of 1979 or those of Central Europe in 1989, when millions of people (in countries with a population much smaller than 80 million of Egypt) in Egypt protested it is clear that the military has always had the ability to repress the demonstrations. However, this option has not been put in place for a simple calculation of costs and benefits. The transfer of power was relatively orderly and managed process internally, and the army is playing a key role in the management of the state and the power structure is almost intact.
At this stage, unlike the previous days in which the demonstrators were concentrated only in Tahrir Square, the geography of the protest was much broader, but nevertheless, it seems that the total number of protesters is not significantly increased, perhaps only 200,000 to 250,000. The latter and the international media, of course, perceive things differently, they see this revolution as very similar to other "revolutions". To date, the number of protesters has not proven sufficient to force the military to do something decisive in the sense of a fundamental change.
The demonstrators have acted in order to obtain a pluralist system, but the army is difficult to answer this instance.
The military have essentially "given" to the demonstrators the demanded gift; however, for the next few weeks on the control of the state will be based on the model 1952, when Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew the government constitute a board of directors composed largely of military officers.
The game then seems to be still open unless recalling the celebrated and timeless joke taken from the italian piece Il Gattopardo "... change everything so that nothing will change ...."