venerdì 11 febbraio 2011

Egiptian update. A crucial Day.

The decision of the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have upset both the Egyptian military and Washington, Mubarak has not done what was expected. This decision puts into serious trouble the Egyptian army whose goal is not to save but save the Mubarak regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser.
The army then must make a choice between these options:
Ø pull back, allowing the crowd to march towards the presidential palace and, perhaps, to join;
Or move the troops and the armed forces to prevent the demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square;
Ø implement a coup and overthrow Mubarak.

Among the various scenarios for what appears to be the most likely is the third: to induce the President to leave by force to preserve the regime born about 60 years ago after the military coup led by Gamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt.
Must be considered that in any case, these hours are crucial for any decision. Since the first light of dawn on Cairo is likely that a large number of other people to join with the protesters and that the mass begins to move towards the corridors of power. In any such context, the military would be forced to let the events do their course.
So far, the military has avoided confrontation with the demonstrators as much as possible, and the protesters have expressed affection for the army.
It is possible, then, that Protestants accept the will of Mubarak to hand over power to deputy Suleiman, but does not seem the case at the moment, the ball, and there world's attention is turned to the Egyptian military establishment.